ABR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ABR - Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
$5.77
-0.07 (-1.20%)
▼
5d:
-19.97%
30d:
-26.87%
90d:
-25.26%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 08, 2026
0d
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1 traders called ABR this week
25% bullish • 3 bearish
25% bullish • 3 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ABR is down 20.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ABR is down 20.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.83
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.59
32.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ABR is currently trading at $5.77, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.92 to $8.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.1) compared to its historical average (8.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.75 (+32.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.75 (+32.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$6.92 -
$8.28
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.7% below Wall St target ($7.75)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -20.0% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.92 -
$8.28
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.69
Resistance Level
$8.54
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.07
Wall Street Target
$7.75
(+32.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.0%
Profit Margin
22.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.1 vs 8.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.46
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$5.11
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$4.77
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$5.81
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 86.7%)
$61.44
(+952%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.1, Growth: 86.7%)
$19.71
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: 86.7%)
$16.75
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.40
Bull Case
$12.75
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 15.9
Base Case
$11.59
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 14.5
Bear Case
$3.94
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.1 to 8.6
Stabilization Target:
$7.10
(+21.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 9:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ABR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Ivan Kaufman
BUY
29000 shares
2025-11-17
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