ACRE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACRE - Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation
$4.60
-0.12 (-2.54%)
▼
5d:
-10.51%
30d:
-10.68%
90d:
-11.03%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
ACRE is down 10.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $5 2026-06-18 with 7 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ACRE is down 10.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ACRE is down 10.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.04
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.79
72.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACRE is currently trading at $4.60, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.89 to $5.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (24.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 30.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1598.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACRE is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $4.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.38 (+16.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACRE is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $4.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.38 (+16.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$4.89 -
$5.31
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
49th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 49th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($5.38)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -10.5% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.89 -
$5.31
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.32
(7.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.59
Resistance Level
$5.33
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.21
Wall Street Target
$5.38
(+16.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-88.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1598.1%
Profit Margin
-36.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-30.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 24.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-30.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.14
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$3.73
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$3.35
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→25)
$10.12
(+120%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 30.2%)
$27.30
(+494%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 30.2%)
$10.16
(+121%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 30.2%)
$8.64
(+88%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 24.8
Stabilization Target:
$13.89
(+201.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+201.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 7:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Anton Feingold
SELL
7606 shares
2026-01-14
Bryan Patrick Donohoe
SELL
21761 shares
2026-01-14
Jeffrey Michael Gonzales
SELL
6218 shares
2026-01-14
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