ADBE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADBE - Adobe Inc.
$219.72
8.74 (4.14%)
▲
5d:
+13.6%
30d:
-16.17%
90d:
-8.97%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 10, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
Get Alerted When ADBE Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ADBE trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ADBE trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$426.83
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$265.03
17.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADBE is currently trading at $219.72, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $199.21 to $249.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.0) compared to its historical average (10.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADBE is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $222.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADBE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $279.87 (+27.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADBE is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $222.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADBE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $279.87 (+27.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$199.21 -
$249.16
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 27.4% below Wall St target ($279.87)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$199.21 -
$249.16
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$190.12
Resistance Level
$222.15
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.98
Wall Street Target
$279.87
(+27.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.9%
Profit Margin
28.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 10.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$201.04
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$183.96
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$168.32
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$219.40
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.7%)
$859.43
(+291%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: 12.7%)
$314.83
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 12.7%)
$267.60
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.49
Bull Case
$365.42
(+66%)
Analyst growth 57.5%, PE expands to 13.3
Base Case
$332.20
(+51%)
Market implied 57.5%, PE stable at 12.1
Bear Case
$143.47
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.0 to 10.4
Stabilization Target:
$286.41
(+30.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+30.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 3:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:50 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ADBE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Daniel Durn
SELL
1336 shares
2026-04-20
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Top Rated Software - Application Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Software - Application by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
DDOG
Datadog Inc |
STRONG BUY
48 analysts |
$242 | 56 HOLD |
|
HUBS
HubSpot Inc |
STRONG BUY
36 analysts |
$278 | 62 BUY |
|
SNOW
Snowflake Inc. |
STRONG BUY
51 analysts |
$293 | 54 HOLD |
|
DT
Dynatrace Holdings LLC |
STRONG BUY
34 analysts |
$45 | 59 HOLD |
|
ESTC
Elastic NV |
STRONG BUY
30 analysts |
$74 | 57 HOLD |
Advanced ADBE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADBE price and gamma walls.
