ADTN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADTN - ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$15.28
-0.49 (-3.11%)
▼
5d:
+5.02%
30d:
-2.86%
90d:
+53.72%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
ADTN is down 4.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $20 2026-06-18 with 2,776 OI. Call ratio: 96% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADTN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADTN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.03
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.41
12.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADTN is currently trading at $15.28, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.53 to $17.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.0) is in line with its historical norms (18.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.28, while resistance sits at $18.69. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.50 (+27.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.28, while resistance sits at $18.69. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.50 (+27.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$14.53 -
$17.30
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 27.6% below Wall St target ($19.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.0% growth with 15.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.53 -
$17.30
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.28
Resistance Level
$18.69
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.96
Wall Street Target
$19.50
(+27.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.0%
Profit Margin
-3.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
20.0 vs 18.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.59
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$15.90
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$16.22
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.28
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 33.6%)
$40.21
(+163%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.0, Growth: 33.6%)
$36.40
(+138%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.0, Growth: 33.6%)
$30.94
(+103%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 9:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Timothy P Santo
BUY
6150 shares
2025-11-28
Nikos Theodosopoulos
BUY
12859 shares
2025-11-26
Thomas R Stanton
BUY
40928 shares
2025-11-24
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