ADTN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADTN - ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$12.71
-0.93 (-6.82%)
▼
5d:
-9.47%
30d:
-30.39%
90d:
-0.16%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
29d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ADTN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ADTN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.42
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.64
28.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADTN is currently trading at $12.71, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.85 to $17.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.7) compared to its historical average (19.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADTN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.50 (+53.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADTN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.50 (+53.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.85 -
$17.05
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 53.4% below Wall St target ($19.50)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-9.5%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.85 -
$17.05
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.42
Resistance Level
$15.86
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.72
Wall Street Target
$19.50
(+53.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.0%
Profit Margin
-3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.7 vs 19.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.15
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$11.62
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$11.11
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→19)
$12.75
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 34.3%)
$40.14
(+216%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.7, Growth: 34.3%)
$30.82
(+143%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.2, Growth: 34.3%)
$26.20
(+106%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.7 to 19.2
Stabilization Target:
$14.59
(+14.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 8:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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