AMRC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMRC - Ameresco, Inc.
$33.12
-0.16 (-0.50%)
▼
5d:
+10.53%
30d:
+32.41%
90d:
+1.33%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
0d
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1 traders called AMRC this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AMRC is 9.1% above its trading range ($30.34). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AMRC is 9.1% above its trading range ($30.34). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$69.34
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$43.06
23.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMRC is currently trading at $33.12, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.46 to $30.34. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.2) is in line with its historical norms (21.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMRC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $28.22, while resistance sits at $34.35.
Market Sentiment: AMRC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.50 (+27.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMRC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $28.22, while resistance sits at $34.35.
Market Sentiment: AMRC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.50 (+27.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$25.46 -
$30.34
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+9.1% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.7% below Wall St target ($42.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.46 -
$30.34
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.22
Resistance Level
$34.35
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.19
Wall Street Target
$42.50
(+27.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.7%
Profit Margin
1.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.2 vs 21.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.55
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$31.83
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$31.13
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→22)
$33.31
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 50.8%)
$122.62
(+269%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 50.8%)
$112.32
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 50.8%)
$95.47
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (50x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 49.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.58
Bull Case
$63.76
(+92%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 55.0
Base Case
$57.96
(+74%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 50.0
Bear Case
$19.71
(-41%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 42.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.2 to 21.6
Stabilization Target:
$35.61
(+7.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 3:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMRC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David J Corrsin
SELL
19 shares
2026-03-12
Louis P Maltezos
SELL
306 shares
2026-03-12
David J Corrsin
SELL
50 shares
2026-03-10
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