APG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APG - APi Group Corporation
$43.13
-1.01 (-2.29%)
▼
5d:
-2.07%
30d:
-2.84%
90d:
-2.88%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
APG is down 6.6% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $45 2026-07-17 with 11,968 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: APG appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.7% annual earnings decline despite 69% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: APG appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.7% annual earnings decline despite 69% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$94.15
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$58.46
26.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APG is currently trading at $43.13, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.41 to $47.76. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.8) compared to its historical average (28.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 68.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $53.20 (+20.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $53.20 (+20.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$43.41 -
$47.76
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.5% below Wall St target ($53.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$43.41 -
$47.76
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.69
Resistance Level
$46.79
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.83
Wall Street Target
$53.20
(+20.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
68.8%
Profit Margin
4.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.8 vs 28.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.18
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$38.42
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$35.85
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→28)
$44.13
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.8, Growth: 69.6%)
$148.97
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 69.6%)
$143.85
(+226%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 69.6%)
$122.27
(+177%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.8 to 28.1
Stabilization Target:
$54.34
(+23.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 3:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Martin E Franklin
SELL
3000000 shares
2026-03-19
Ian G H Ashken
SELL
72546 shares
2026-03-04
James E Lillie
SELL
83629 shares
2026-03-04
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Advanced APG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's APG price and gamma walls.
