ARI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARI - APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINANCE, INC.
$10.39
-0.15 (-1.42%)
▼
5d:
-3.53%
30d:
-5.55%
90d:
-1.33%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ARI trades at premium valuation expecting 7.0% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: ARI trades at premium valuation expecting 7.0% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.49
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.24
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARI is currently trading at $10.39, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.66 to $10.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.1) compared to its historical average (11.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ARI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.83 (+13.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ARI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.83 (+13.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.66 -
$10.97
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($11.83)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.0% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.66 -
$10.97
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.34
Resistance Level
$10.91
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.11
Wall Street Target
$11.83
(+13.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Profit Margin
47.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.0% premium
PE vs Historical
14.1 vs 11.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.12
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$11.90
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$12.73
(+23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$10.37
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 60.0%)
$54.12
(+421%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.1, Growth: 60.0%)
$35.07
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.5, Growth: 60.0%)
$28.58
(+175%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 13.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.81
Bull Case
$10.54
(+1%)
Analyst growth -9.1%, PE expands to 14.3
Base Case
$9.58
(-8%)
Market implied -9.1%, PE stable at 13.0
Bear Case
$7.17
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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