ARI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARI - APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINANCE, INC.
$10.84
-0.13 (-1.19%)
▼
5d:
-1.45%
30d:
-2.08%
90d:
+2.07%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 11.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 11.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.29
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARI is currently trading at $10.84, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.79 to $11.11. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.8) compared to its historical average (10.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 11.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$10.79 -
$11.11
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($11.60)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 11.2% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.79 -
$11.11
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.70
Resistance Level
$11.11
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.77
Wall Street Target
$11.60
(+7.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Profit Margin
47.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+11.2% premium
PE vs Historical
14.8 vs 10.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+11.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.05
(+11%)
2-Year Target
$13.40
(+24%)
3-Year Target
$14.91
(+38%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$10.79
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 44.2%)
$48.58
(+348%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.8, Growth: 44.2%)
$32.52
(+200%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 44.2%)
$23.55
(+117%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 13.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.81
Bull Case
$10.92
(-1%)
Analyst growth -9.4%, PE expands to 14.9
Base Case
$9.92
(-10%)
Market implied -9.4%, PE stable at 13.5
Bear Case
$7.45
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 5:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stuart Rothstein
SELL
52072 shares
2025-12-15
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