ARR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARR - ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
$17.13
-0.12 (-0.70%)
▼
5d:
-0.06%
30d:
-0.75%
90d:
+1.48%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
17d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 3.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.05
Based on 3.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARR is currently trading at $17.13, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.84 to $17.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.7) is in line with its historical norms (5.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $16.47, while resistance sits at $17.64.
Market Sentiment: ARR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $16.47, while resistance sits at $17.64.
Market Sentiment: ARR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$16.84 -
$17.26
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($18.38)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.84 -
$17.26
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.47
Resistance Level
$17.65
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.68
Wall Street Target
$18.38
(+7.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
126.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.1%
Profit Margin
80.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
5.7 vs 5.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.22
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$17.30
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$17.39
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$17.14
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.0%)
$71.74
(+319%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.7, Growth: 3.0%)
$18.72
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.8, Growth: 3.0%)
$15.91
(-7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.49
Bull Case
$22.97
(+34%)
Analyst growth 21.1%, PE expands to 7.6
Base Case
$20.88
(+22%)
Market implied 21.1%, PE stable at 6.9
Bear Case
$11.73
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 9:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Robert C Hain
SELL
6833 shares
2026-01-06
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARR price and gamma walls.
