ARR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARR - ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
$17.37
-0.02 (-0.12%)
▼
5d:
-1.03%
30d:
-1.08%
90d:
-4.24%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
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1 traders called ARR this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.98
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.03
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARR is currently trading at $17.37, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.31 to $17.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.7) is in line with its historical norms (5.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$17.31 -
$17.67
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($18.38)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.31 -
$17.67
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.18
Resistance Level
$17.81
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.68
Wall Street Target
$18.38
(+5.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
126.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.1%
Profit Margin
80.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
5.7 vs 5.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.46
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$17.54
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$17.63
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$17.38
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 4.3%)
$76.55
(+341%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.7, Growth: 4.3%)
$19.73
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.8, Growth: 4.3%)
$16.77
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.49
Bull Case
$23.49
(+35%)
Analyst growth 22.8%, PE expands to 7.7
Base Case
$21.35
(+23%)
Market implied 22.8%, PE stable at 7.0
Bear Case
$11.83
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 2:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Robert C Hain
SELL
6833 shares
2026-01-06
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Advanced ARR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARR price and gamma walls.
