BLD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BLD - TopBuild Corp. Common Stock
$406.29
5.53 (1.38%)
▲
5d:
-4.32%
30d:
-0.98%
90d:
-25.46%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
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1 traders called BLD this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BLD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BLD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$682.75
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$423.93
4.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BLD is currently trading at $406.29, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $399.46 to $451.89. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.4) is in line with its historical norms (20.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLD is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $397.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $475.30 (+17.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLD is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $397.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $475.30 (+17.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$399.46 -
$451.89
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($475.30)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$399.46 -
$451.89
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$397.84
Resistance Level
$444.58
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.37
Wall Street Target
$475.30
(+17.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.8%
Profit Margin
8.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.4 vs 20.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$397.76
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$389.40
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$381.23
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→21)
$405.52
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 15.3%)
$710.35
(+75%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.4, Growth: 15.3%)
$622.48
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.5, Growth: 15.3%)
$529.10
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.79
Bull Case
$520.40
(+28%)
Analyst growth 17.9%, PE expands to 24.8
Base Case
$473.09
(+16%)
Market implied 17.9%, PE stable at 22.6
Bear Case
$272.80
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.4 to 20.6
Stabilization Target:
$432.18
(+6.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 11:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BLD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Luis Francisco Machado
SELL
1000 shares
2025-11-26
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