BLD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BLD - TopBuild Corp. Common Stock
$354.53
-5.23 (-1.45%)
▼
5d:
-12.98%
30d:
-15.08%
90d:
+5.71%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BLD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BLD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$662.95
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$411.64
13.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BLD is currently trading at $354.53, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $391.30 to $424.40. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.0) compared to its historical average (20.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $330.51, while resistance sits at $431.58.
Market Sentiment: BLD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $471.33 (+32.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $330.51, while resistance sits at $431.58.
Market Sentiment: BLD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $471.33 (+32.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$391.30 -
$424.40
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.9% below Wall St target ($471.33)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-13.0%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$391.30 -
$424.40
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$330.51
Resistance Level
$431.58
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.01
Wall Street Target
$471.33
(+32.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.8%
Profit Margin
8.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.0 vs 20.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$333.61
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$313.93
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$295.41
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→20)
$354.37
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.7%)
$685.96
(+94%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.0, Growth: 14.7%)
$535.59
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.5, Growth: 14.7%)
$455.25
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.79
Bull Case
$477.49
(+35%)
Analyst growth 17.2%, PE expands to 22.9
Base Case
$434.08
(+22%)
Market implied 17.2%, PE stable at 20.8
Bear Case
$251.88
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.0 to 20.4
Stabilization Target:
$425.29
(+20.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 10:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BLD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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