CMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
$32.09
-0.02 (-0.06%)
▼
5d:
-3.55%
30d:
-8.96%
90d:
-10.46%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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6 traders called CMG this week
89% bullish • 1 bearish
89% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.20
Based on 11.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.76
12.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMG is currently trading at $32.09, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.49 to $34.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.6) compared to its historical average (27.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $31.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CMG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.50 (+35.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $31.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CMG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.50 (+35.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$32.49 -
$34.92
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CMG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.6% below Wall St target ($43.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.49 -
$34.92
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.63
Resistance Level
$34.17
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.63
Wall Street Target
$43.50
(+35.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.9%
Profit Margin
12.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.6 vs 27.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.49
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$28.96
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$27.51
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→28)
$32.14
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.6, Growth: 19.8%)
$55.15
(+72%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 19.8%)
$51.44
(+60%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 19.8%)
$43.73
(+36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.07
Bull Case
$44.83
(+40%)
Analyst growth 26.9%, PE expands to 33.0
Base Case
$40.76
(+27%)
Market implied 26.9%, PE stable at 30.0
Bear Case
$21.83
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.6 to 27.6
Stabilization Target:
$37.49
(+16.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 9:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-01-29
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CMG price and gamma walls.
