COP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COP - ConocoPhillips
$122.41
3.44 (2.89%)
▲
5d:
+7.5%
30d:
+0.69%
90d:
+9.85%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
COP is down 4.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $130 2026-06-18 with 8,785 OI. Call ratio: 62% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: COP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: COP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$132.75
Based on -1.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$82.43
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COP is currently trading at $122.41, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $117.27 to $126.08. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.9) compared to its historical average (16.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $125.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $140.59 (+14.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $125.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $140.59 (+14.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$117.27 -
$126.08
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($140.59)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$117.27 -
$126.08
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$113.62
Resistance Level
$125.27
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.94
Wall Street Target
$140.59
(+14.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-20.2%
Profit Margin
12.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.9 vs 16.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$116.41
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$110.71
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$105.28
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$122.34
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -6.6%)
$158.02
(+29%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.9, Growth: -6.6%)
$99.82
(-19%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.9, Growth: -6.6%)
$84.85
(-31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.90
Bull Case
$194.76
(+59%)
Analyst growth 48.8%, PE expands to 22.2
Base Case
$177.05
(+45%)
Market implied 48.8%, PE stable at 20.2
Bear Case
$80.90
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.9 to 16.2
Stabilization Target:
$142.24
(+16.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 12:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ryan Michael Lance
SELL
113221 shares
2026-03-31
Kelly Brunetti Rose
SELL
7700 shares
2026-03-24
Nicholas G Olds
SELL
6994 shares
2026-03-23
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Advanced COP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COP price and gamma walls.
