EXPD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXPD - Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
$155.19
1.58 (1.03%)
▲
5d:
-0.96%
30d:
+5.56%
90d:
+5.93%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
EXPD is up 6.4% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $135 2026-06-18 with 61 OI. Put ratio: 67% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.9/10
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2 traders called EXPD this week
50% bullish • 1 bearish
50% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EXPD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EXPD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$192.66
Based on 3.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$119.63
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXPD is currently trading at $155.19, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $144.59 to $153.02. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.2) is in line with its historical norms (24.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPD is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $157.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EXPD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPD is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $157.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EXPD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$144.59 -
$153.02
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($146.38)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$144.59 -
$153.02
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.02
(3.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$136.13
Resistance Level
$157.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.18
Wall Street Target
$146.38
(-4.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.3%
Profit Margin
7.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.2 vs 24.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$149.62
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$145.73
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$141.94
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→24)
$153.58
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.2, Growth: 2.0%)
$162.91
(+6%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 2.0%)
$161.88
(+5%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 2.0%)
$137.60
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.19
Bull Case
$191.74
(+25%)
Analyst growth 11.9%, PE expands to 27.7
Base Case
$174.31
(+14%)
Market implied 11.9%, PE stable at 25.2
Bear Case
$105.94
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.2 to 24.0
Stabilization Target:
$166.21
(+8.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 3:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXPD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
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