FRPT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FRPT - Freshpet, Inc.
$49.34
0.71 (1.46%)
▲
5d:
-11.69%
30d:
-28.27%
90d:
-27.32%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
FRPT is down 16.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $75 2026-06-18 with 156 OI. Call ratio: 62% View Scanner →
Strength: 9.3/10
Get Alerted When FRPT Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FRPT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FRPT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$84.80
Based on 12.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$52.65
6.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FRPT is currently trading at $49.34, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $55.88 to $68.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 25.9) compared to its historical average (39.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 79.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRPT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $47.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FRPT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $82.38 (+67.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRPT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $47.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FRPT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $82.38 (+67.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$55.88 -
$68.84
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FRPT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 67.0% below Wall St target ($82.38)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-11.7%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$55.88 -
$68.84
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$47.95
Resistance Level
$67.96
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.91
Wall Street Target
$82.38
(+67.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
79.2%
Profit Margin
17.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.9 vs 39.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.41
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$39.97
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$35.97
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→39)
$54.41
(+10%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.9, Growth: 20.8%)
$86.94
(+76%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 20.8%)
$73.94
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 20.8%)
$62.85
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 13.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.81
Bull Case
$27.41
(-44%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 14.4
Base Case
$24.92
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 13.1
Bear Case
$33.89
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.9 to 39.2
Stabilization Target:
$74.64
(+51.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+51.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 9:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:17 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is FRPT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scott James Morris
SELL
5142 shares
2025-12-05
Top Rated Packaged Foods Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Packaged Foods by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
DAR
Darling Ingredients Inc |
STRONG BUY
13 analysts |
$76 | 60 HOLD |
|
BRBR
Bellring Brands LLC |
STRONG BUY
17 analysts |
$16 | 54 HOLD |
|
CPB
Campbell’s Co |
SELL
23 analysts |
$24 | 65 BUY |
|
SJM
The J. M. Smucker Company |
HOLD
20 analysts |
$117 | 60 HOLD |
|
KHC
Kraft Heinz Co |
SELL
23 analysts |
$24 | 66 BUY |
Advanced FRPT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FRPT price and gamma walls.
