GCMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GCMG - GCM Grosvenor Inc. Class A Common Stock
$10.77
0.12 (1.13%)
▲
5d:
-5.19%
30d:
-1.55%
90d:
-8.03%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GCMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GCMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.96
Based on 12.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.01
17.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GCMG is currently trading at $10.77, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.42 to $11.22. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.3) is in line with its historical norms (11.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 104.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.12 (+31.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.12 (+31.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$10.42 -
$11.22
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.2% below Wall St target ($14.12)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.2% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.42 -
$11.22
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.51
Resistance Level
$11.65
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.26
Wall Street Target
$14.13
(+31.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
104.4%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 11.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.41
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$10.07
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$9.74
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$10.73
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 20.4%)
$40.51
(+276%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 20.4%)
$18.80
(+75%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 20.4%)
$15.98
(+48%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.50
Bull Case
$23.43
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 23.4
Base Case
$21.30
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 21.3
Bear Case
$7.24
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.3 to 11.3
Stabilization Target:
$11.87
(+10.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 6:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is GCMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Pamela L Bentley
SELL
40000 shares
2025-12-16
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