GRBK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GRBK - Green Brick Partners, Inc
$66.33
-0.20 (-0.30%)
▼
5d:
+6.98%
30d:
-7.67%
90d:
-14.81%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GRBK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GRBK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$86.71
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.84
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GRBK is currently trading at $66.33, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.20 to $69.60. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRBK is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $66.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GRBK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRBK is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $66.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GRBK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$64.20 -
$69.60
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($62.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.2% growth with -4.9% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$64.20 -
$69.60
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$61.99
Resistance Level
$66.98
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.64
Wall Street Target
$62.00
(-6.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-16.8%
Profit Margin
14.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$67.13
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$67.93
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$68.75
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$66.56
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 8.4%)
$174.81
(+164%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 8.4%)
$84.57
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 8.4%)
$71.88
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.79
Bull Case
$66.36
(0%)
Analyst growth -8.2%, PE expands to 10.6
Base Case
$60.33
(-9%)
Market implied -8.2%, PE stable at 9.7
Bear Case
$44.68
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 22, 2026 5:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GRBK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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