GVA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GVA - Granite Construction Inc.
$138.55
-2.38 (-1.69%)
▼
5d:
-2.35%
30d:
+12.26%
90d:
+5.82%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GVA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GVA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$193.75
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$120.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GVA is currently trading at $138.55, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $122.69 to $138.93. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.3) is in line with its historical norms (18.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GVA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $137.09. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GVA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $166.50 (+18.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GVA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $137.09. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GVA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $166.50 (+18.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$122.69 -
$138.93
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($166.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$122.69 -
$138.93
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$137.09
Resistance Level
$145.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.26
Wall Street Target
$166.50
(+18.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.1%
Profit Margin
4.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
19.3 vs 18.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$142.62
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$144.33
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$146.06
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$141.02
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 10.7%)
$218.63
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.3, Growth: 10.7%)
$191.10
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.4, Growth: 10.7%)
$162.44
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.74
Bull Case
$307.96
(+119%)
Analyst growth 95.6%, PE expands to 42.1
Base Case
$279.96
(+99%)
Market implied 95.6%, PE stable at 38.3
Bear Case
$97.33
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 4:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GVA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kyle T Larkin
SELL
26651 shares
2026-03-27
Kyle T Larkin
SELL
7314 shares
2026-03-19
Staci M Woolsey
SELL
1523 shares
2026-03-19
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