MTH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTH - Meritage Homes Corporation
$59.17
-2.68 (-4.33%)
▼
5d:
-9.19%
30d:
-8.01%
90d:
-26.59%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MTH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MTH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$122.05
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$75.78
21.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTH is currently trading at $59.17, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $62.90 to $68.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $59.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $77.78 (+31.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $59.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $77.78 (+31.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$62.90 -
$68.59
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 31.4% below Wall St target ($77.78)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.2% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$62.90 -
$68.59
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$59.49
Resistance Level
$67.24
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.06
Wall Street Target
$77.78
(+31.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-17.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.5%
Profit Margin
6.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 9.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$58.05
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$56.94
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$55.86
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$59.17
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 29.4%)
$311.93
(+427%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 29.4%)
$128.10
(+117%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: 29.4%)
$108.88
(+84%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.48
Bull Case
$81.05
(+37%)
Analyst growth 19.1%, PE expands to 12.4
Base Case
$73.69
(+25%)
Market implied 19.1%, PE stable at 11.3
Bear Case
$42.06
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.1 to 9.6
Stabilization Target:
$62.68
(+5.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 3:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Alison Sasser
SELL
151 shares
2026-02-24
Austin M Woffinden
SELL
143 shares
2026-02-24
Hilla Sferruzza
SELL
10928 shares
2026-02-23
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