NKE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NKE - Nike, Inc.
$44.09
1.03 (2.39%)
▲
5d:
+7.8%
30d:
+0.82%
90d:
-1.21%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.0/10
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1 traders called NKE this week
0% bullish • 1 bearish
0% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NKE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NKE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$82.41
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.17
13.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NKE is currently trading at $44.09, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.19 to $45.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.1) is in line with its historical norms (25.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NKE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $42.65, while resistance sits at $47.65.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.86 (+17.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NKE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $42.65, while resistance sits at $47.65.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.86 (+17.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$42.19 -
$45.63
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($51.86)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.19 -
$45.63
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.65
Resistance Level
$47.65
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.08
Wall Street Target
$51.86
(+17.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-34.8%
Profit Margin
4.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.1 vs 25.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.08
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$42.09
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$41.12
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→26)
$44.05
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.1, Growth: 21.3%)
$78.65
(+78%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 21.3%)
$71.13
(+61%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 21.3%)
$60.46
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 20.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.10
Bull Case
$41.29
(-6%)
Analyst growth -12.8%, PE expands to 22.6
Base Case
$37.54
(-15%)
Market implied -12.8%, PE stable at 20.5
Bear Case
$29.28
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.1 to 25.8
Stabilization Target:
$47.23
(+7.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 3:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NKE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Elliott Hill
BUY
23660 shares
2026-04-13
Timothy D Cook
BUY
25000 shares
2026-04-10
John W Rogers Jr
BUY
4000 shares
2026-04-09
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