NKE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NKE - Nike, Inc.
$42.60
0.71 (1.71%)
▲
5d:
+0.48%
30d:
-7.46%
90d:
-34.29%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 25, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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59 traders called NKE this week
72% bullish • 30 bearish
72% bullish • 30 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NKE trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NKE trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$88.02
Based on 13.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$54.65
22.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NKE is currently trading at $42.59, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.69 to $45.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.6) compared to its historical average (26.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NKE is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $41.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.08 (+45.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NKE is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $41.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.08 (+45.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$42.69 -
$45.44
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 45.8% below Wall St target ($61.08)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.69 -
$45.44
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.35
Resistance Level
$44.66
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.59
Wall Street Target
$61.08
(+45.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-34.8%
Profit Margin
4.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.6 vs 26.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.74
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$37.72
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$35.79
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→26)
$41.83
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.6, Growth: 23.8%)
$79.46
(+90%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 23.8%)
$77.64
(+85%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 23.8%)
$65.99
(+58%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.52
Bull Case
$56.38
(+35%)
Analyst growth 22.0%, PE expands to 30.4
Base Case
$51.26
(+22%)
Market implied 22.0%, PE stable at 27.6
Bear Case
$28.57
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.6 to 26.4
Stabilization Target:
$48.95
(+16.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 1:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NKE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
9
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Elliott Hill
BUY
23660 shares
2026-04-13
Timothy D Cook
BUY
25000 shares
2026-04-10
John W Rogers Jr
BUY
4000 shares
2026-04-09
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