NMIH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NMIH - NMI Holdings Inc. Common Stock
$41.04
0.04 (0.10%)
▲
5d:
+3.77%
30d:
+15.15%
90d:
+9.88%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NMIH is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: NMIH is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.67
Based on 4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.22
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMIH is currently trading at $41.04, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.09 to $38.56. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.6) is in line with its historical norms (7.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMIH is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NMIH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.29 (+12.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMIH is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NMIH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.29 (+12.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$36.09 -
$38.56
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.4% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($46.29)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.09 -
$38.56
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.12
Resistance Level
$37.60
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.60
Wall Street Target
$46.29
(+12.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.9%
Profit Margin
53.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 7.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.70
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$42.36
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$43.04
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$40.76
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 5.2%)
$136.89
(+234%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 5.2%)
$47.78
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: 5.2%)
$40.62
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.92
Bull Case
$49.48
(+21%)
Analyst growth 9.7%, PE expands to 9.2
Base Case
$44.99
(+10%)
Market implied 9.7%, PE stable at 8.3
Bear Case
$27.88
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 7:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NMIH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Bradley M Shuster
SELL
18953 shares
2026-03-24
Bradley M Shuster
SELL
18996 shares
2026-03-19
Bradley M Shuster
SELL
18976 shares
2026-03-12
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