PGR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PGR - Progressive Corporation
$199.73
2.85 (1.45%)
▲
5d:
+2.95%
30d:
-1.84%
90d:
-2.35%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 15, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
PGR is up 3.7% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $180 2026-06-18 with 1,259 OI. Put ratio: 60% View Scanner →
Strength: 2.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PGR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PGR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.74
Based on -35.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.53
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PGR is currently trading at $199.73, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $196.30 to $202.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.3) is in line with its historical norms (12.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $202.66. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PGR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $230.81 (+15.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $202.66. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PGR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $230.81 (+15.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$196.30 -
$202.81
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($230.81)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$196.30 -
$202.81
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$191.75
Resistance Level
$202.66
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.34
Wall Street Target
$230.81
(+15.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.8%
Profit Margin
12.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.3 vs 12.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$196.53
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$193.39
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$190.30
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$198.85
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -74.4%)
$349.17
(+75%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.3, Growth: -74.4%)
$195.31
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: -74.4%)
$166.01
(-17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.65
Bull Case
$178.31
(-11%)
Analyst growth -17.7%, PE expands to 11.0
Base Case
$162.10
(-19%)
Market implied -17.7%, PE stable at 10.0
Bear Case
$133.88
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.3 to 12.9
Stabilization Target:
$208.71
(+4.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 5:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PGR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Carl G Joyce
SELL
270 shares
2026-03-20
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PGR price and gamma walls.
