PGR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PGR - Progressive Corporation
$232.22
6.92 (3.07%)
▲
5d:
+7.74%
30d:
+17.99%
90d:
+20.1%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 15, 2026
10d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PGR is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: PGR is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$204.89
Based on -0.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$127.22
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PGR is currently trading at $232.22, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $195.25 to $217.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.2) is in line with its historical norms (12.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $204.51. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: PGR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $204.51. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: PGR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$195.25 -
$217.32
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
PGR is technically overbought (RSI 72). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.9% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($230.95)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$195.25 -
$217.32
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$189.20
Resistance Level
$204.51
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.15
Wall Street Target
$230.95
(-0.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.8%
Profit Margin
12.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.2% premium
PE vs Historical
14.2 vs 12.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$239.65
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$247.32
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$255.23
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$232.70
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -5.2%)
$304.98
(+31%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.1, Growth: -5.2%)
$198.13
(-15%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: -5.2%)
$168.41
(-28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.66
Bull Case
$206.89
(-11%)
Analyst growth -16.5%, PE expands to 12.6
Base Case
$188.08
(-19%)
Market implied -16.5%, PE stable at 11.5
Bear Case
$153.20
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 1:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:07 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is PGR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Carl G Joyce
SELL
270 shares
2026-03-20
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