SAM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAM - Boston Beer Company
$174.03
-0.70 (-0.40%)
▼
5d:
-7.7%
30d:
-29.06%
90d:
-24.89%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SAM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SAM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$352.98
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$219.17
20.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAM is currently trading at $174.03, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $192.98 to $247.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.7) compared to its historical average (19.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 48.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAM is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $169.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $230.39 (+32.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAM is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $169.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $230.39 (+32.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$192.98 -
$247.32
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.4% below Wall St target ($230.39)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.7% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$192.98 -
$247.32
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$169.98
Resistance Level
$212.56
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.70
Wall Street Target
$230.39
(+32.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
48.6%
Profit Margin
-3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.7 vs 19.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$161.15
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$149.23
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$138.18
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→20)
$174.29
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 16.1%)
$383.13
(+120%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.7, Growth: 16.1%)
$272.15
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: 16.1%)
$231.32
(+33%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.7 to 19.8
Stabilization Target:
$219.50
(+26.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 19, 2026 12:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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