SHOO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SHOO - Steven Madden Ltd
$39.92
-1.66 (-3.99%)
▼
5d:
-3.76%
30d:
-9.83%
90d:
+17.2%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SHOO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SHOO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$83.41
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.79
22.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SHOO is currently trading at $39.92, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.31 to $45.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.8) is in line with its historical norms (15.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 75.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.78 (+17.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.78 (+17.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$41.31 -
$45.06
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($46.78)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$41.31 -
$45.06
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.13
Resistance Level
$46.65
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.82
Wall Street Target
$46.78
(+17.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.4%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.8 vs 15.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.96
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$38.03
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$37.11
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$39.82
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 27.0%)
$120.08
(+201%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.8, Growth: 27.0%)
$81.70
(+105%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.6, Growth: 27.0%)
$69.45
(+74%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.06
Bull Case
$91.48
(+129%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 43.2
Base Case
$83.16
(+108%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 39.2
Bear Case
$28.27
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.8 to 15.9
Stabilization Target:
$42.83
(+7.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 8:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:44 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is SHOO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Arian Simone Reed
SELL
3600 shares
2026-03-12
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