SHOO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SHOO - Steven Madden Ltd
$39.09
0.30 (0.77%)
▲
5d:
+0.51%
30d:
-1.78%
90d:
-0.86%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SHOO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SHOO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$82.65
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.32
23.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SHOO is currently trading at $39.09, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.54 to $39.49. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.5) is in line with its historical norms (15.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 75.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.56, while resistance sits at $41.18.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.44 (+17.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.56, while resistance sits at $41.18.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.44 (+17.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$37.54 -
$39.49
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($45.44)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.54 -
$39.49
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.56
Resistance Level
$41.18
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.53
Wall Street Target
$45.44
(+17.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.4%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.5 vs 15.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.63
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$36.50
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$35.40
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$38.74
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 26.3%)
$118.63
(+206%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.5, Growth: 26.3%)
$78.11
(+101%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.4, Growth: 26.3%)
$66.40
(+71%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.06
Bull Case
$86.88
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 41.0
Base Case
$78.98
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 37.3
Bear Case
$26.85
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.5 to 15.9
Stabilization Target:
$42.44
(+9.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 12:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SHOO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Arian Simone Reed
SELL
3600 shares
2026-03-12
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