STLD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STLD - Steel Dynamics Inc
$220.39
-1.37 (-0.62%)
▼
5d:
-12.2%
30d:
-18.8%
90d:
+20.53%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 20, 2026
15d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: STLD is down 12.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: STLD is down 12.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$351.16
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$218.04
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STLD is currently trading at $220.39, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $240.46 to $274.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.9) is in line with its historical norms (12.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 93.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STLD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $248.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $271.25 (+23.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STLD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $248.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $271.25 (+23.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$240.46 -
$274.77
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding STLD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.1% below Wall St target ($271.25)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -12.2% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$240.46 -
$274.77
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$248.19
Resistance Level
$280.49
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.93
Wall Street Target
$271.25
(+23.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
93.1%
Profit Margin
7.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 12.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$214.66
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$209.08
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$203.64
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$220.21
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.2%)
$567.81
(+158%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 12.2%)
$311.01
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 12.2%)
$264.35
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.34
Bull Case
$482.50
(+119%)
Analyst growth 97.8%, PE expands to 26.1
Base Case
$438.63
(+99%)
Market implied 97.8%, PE stable at 23.7
Bear Case
$150.80
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.9 to 12.9
Stabilization Target:
$238.32
(+8.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 1:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STLD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kenneth W Cornew
SELL
5000 shares
2026-04-23
Miguel Alvarez
SELL
4825 shares
2026-04-23
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-01-09
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Advanced STLD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's STLD price and gamma walls.
