AAON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAON - Aaon Inc
$83.65
0.90 (1.09%)
▲
5d:
-4.76%
30d:
-12.25%
90d:
+6.4%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
26d
Smart Money Accumulation
AAON is down 4.8% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $75 2026-05-15 with 2 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AAON trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AAON trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$144.20
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$89.54
6.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAON is currently trading at $83.65, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.62 to $96.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 28.2) compared to its historical average (41.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $76.84, while resistance sits at $88.17.
Market Sentiment: AAON has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $122.75 (+46.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $76.84, while resistance sits at $88.17.
Market Sentiment: AAON has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $122.75 (+46.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$80.62 -
$96.71
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
92.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 46.7% below Wall St target ($122.75)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$80.62 -
$96.71
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.49
(7.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$76.84
Resistance Level
$88.17
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.24
Wall Street Target
$122.75
(+46.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.6%
Profit Margin
7.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
28.2 vs 41.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.29
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$67.76
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$60.98
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→41)
$88.96
(+6%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.2, Growth: 48.5%)
$274.19
(+228%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 48.5%)
$216.99
(+159%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 48.5%)
$184.44
(+121%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 41.84 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.92
Bull Case
$96.95
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 43.9
Base Case
$80.29
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 41.8
Bear Case
$61.42
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 37.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 28.2 to 41.2
Stabilization Target:
$122.03
(+45.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+45.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 9:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Casey Kidwell
SELL
5225 shares
2026-03-12
Stephen E Wakefield
BUY
4141 shares
2025-12-12
Stephen E Wakefield
BUY
1000 shares
2025-12-11
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Advanced AAON Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAON price and gamma walls.
