AAON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAON - Aaon Inc
$91.06
-2.25 (-2.41%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
25d
Get Alerted When AAON Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AAON shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AAON shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$96.59
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$59.97
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAON is currently trading at $91.06, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $78.22 to $92.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 47.0) is in line with its historical norms (42.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $88.21, while resistance sits at $97.64.
Market Sentiment: AAON has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $115.25 (+23.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $88.21, while resistance sits at $97.64.
Market Sentiment: AAON has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $115.25 (+23.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$78.22 -
$92.70
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.5% below Wall St target ($115.25)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.1% growth with 16.8% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$78.22 -
$92.70
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$7.50
(8.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$88.21
Resistance Level
$97.65
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
47.03
Wall Street Target
$115.25
(+23.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.6%
Profit Margin
7.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.1% premium
PE vs Historical
47.0 vs 42.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$96.20
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$99.18
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$102.26
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 47→43)
PE COMPRESSION
$93.28
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 47.0, Growth: 39.7%)
$254.50
(+173%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 39.7%)
$120.67
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 39.7%)
$102.57
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 45.05 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.02
Bull Case
$109.95
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 47.3
Base Case
$91.06
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 45.1
Bear Case
$69.66
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 40.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 9:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:03 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is AAON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Rebecca Thompson
SELL
9350 shares
2025-09-04
Christopher Douglas Eason
SELL
12003 shares
2025-08-25
Top Rated Building Products & Equipment Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Building Products & Equipment by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
CARR
Carrier Global Corp |
BUY
25 analysts |
$71 | 64 BUY |
|
BLDR
Builders FirstSource Inc |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$131 | 55 HOLD |
|
JCI
Johnson Controls Interna… |
BUY
23 analysts |
$135 | 61 BUY |
|
TT
Trane Technologies plc |
HOLD
26 analysts |
$479 | 62 BUY |
|
MAS
Masco Corporation |
HOLD
24 analysts |
$75 | 52 HOLD |
Advanced AAON Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAON price and gamma walls.
