ABG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ABG - Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.
$205.40
7.38 (3.73%)
▲
5d:
+1.16%
30d:
+8.13%
90d:
+5.86%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ABG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ABG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$332.26
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$206.31
0.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ABG is currently trading at $205.40, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $190.74 to $202.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.9) is in line with its historical norms (7.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 47.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $208.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $232.30 (+13.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $208.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $232.30 (+13.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$190.74 -
$202.25
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($232.30)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$190.74 -
$202.25
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$189.13
Resistance Level
$208.12
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.94
Wall Street Target
$232.30
(+13.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
47.1%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.9 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$201.91
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$198.48
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$195.10
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$205.20
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.1%)
$956.59
(+366%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.9, Growth: 14.1%)
$304.84
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 14.1%)
$259.12
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $28.30
Bull Case
$227.78
(+11%)
Analyst growth 4.6%, PE expands to 7.7
Base Case
$207.07
(+1%)
Market implied 4.6%, PE stable at 7.0
Bear Case
$134.65
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.9 to 7.3
Stabilization Target:
$216.03
(+5.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 10:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ABG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
B. Christopher Disantis
BUY
500 shares
2026-03-10
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