ABG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ABG - Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.
$177.36
-1.81 (-1.01%)
▼
5d:
-10.19%
30d:
-16.12%
90d:
-22.01%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ABG is down 10.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ABG is down 10.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$340.20
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$211.24
16.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ABG is currently trading at $177.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $192.20 to $207.61. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.1) compared to its historical average (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 47.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $176.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $235.67 (+31.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $176.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $235.67 (+31.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$192.20 -
$207.61
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.5% below Wall St target ($235.67)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -10.2% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$192.20 -
$207.61
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$176.13
Resistance Level
$203.56
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.08
Wall Street Target
$235.67
(+31.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
47.1%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.1 vs 7.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$166.81
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$155.30
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$144.58
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$178.49
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 14.1%)
$966.72
(+440%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.1, Growth: 14.1%)
$266.11
(+49%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.2, Growth: 14.1%)
$226.19
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $28.29
Bull Case
$221.43
(+24%)
Analyst growth 4.2%, PE expands to 7.5
Base Case
$201.30
(+12%)
Market implied 4.2%, PE stable at 6.8
Bear Case
$131.30
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.1 to 7.5
Stabilization Target:
$221.19
(+23.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 3:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ABG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
B. Christopher Disantis
BUY
500 shares
2026-03-10
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