ABR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ABR - Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
$5.27
-0.09 (-1.68%)
▼
5d:
+2.93%
30d:
-2.77%
90d:
-29.83%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ABR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ABR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.06
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.87
23.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ABR is currently trading at $5.27, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.13 to $5.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.9) is in line with its historical norms (8.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $5.03, while resistance sits at $5.49.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.25 (+37.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $5.03, while resistance sits at $5.49.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.25 (+37.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$5.13 -
$5.48
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.6% below Wall St target ($7.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.13 -
$5.48
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.03
Resistance Level
$5.49
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.89
Wall Street Target
$7.25
(+37.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.0%
Profit Margin
22.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.9 vs 8.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.15
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$5.03
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$4.91
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$5.30
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 114.1%)
$49.10
(+832%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.9, Growth: 114.1%)
$17.79
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: 114.1%)
$15.12
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.40
Bull Case
$9.85
(+87%)
Analyst growth 67.0%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$8.95
(+70%)
Market implied 67.0%, PE stable at 13.4
Bear Case
$3.64
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.9 to 8.5
Stabilization Target:
$5.68
(+7.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 4:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ABR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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