ACA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACA - Arcosa, Inc. Common Stock
$129.91
1.05 (0.81%)
▲
5d:
+1.46%
30d:
+16.76%
90d:
+2.52%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ACA is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: ACA is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$187.60
Based on 10.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$116.48
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACA is currently trading at $129.91, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $111.64 to $127.23. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 25.7) compared to its historical average (22.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $118.11, while resistance sits at $135.58.
Market Sentiment: ACA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $118.11, while resistance sits at $135.58.
Market Sentiment: ACA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$111.64 -
$127.23
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($141.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$111.64 -
$127.23
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$118.11
Resistance Level
$135.58
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.73
Wall Street Target
$141.00
(+8.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
57.8%
Profit Margin
7.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.5% premium
PE vs Historical
25.7 vs 22.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$135.76
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$141.86
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$148.25
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$129.65
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.7, Growth: 17.3%)
$209.45
(+61%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 17.3%)
$179.43
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 17.3%)
$152.51
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.47
Bull Case
$160.12
(+23%)
Analyst growth 13.0%, PE expands to 31.7
Base Case
$145.57
(+12%)
Market implied 13.0%, PE stable at 28.8
Bear Case
$87.62
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 2:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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