ACRE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACRE - Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation
$5.14
0.09 (1.78%)
▲
5d:
-2.84%
30d:
+2.39%
90d:
-1.15%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACRE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 30.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACRE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 30.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.89
Based on 13.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.32
70.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACRE is currently trading at $5.14, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.95 to $5.33. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.7) compared to its historical average (25.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 30.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1598.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACRE is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $4.91, while resistance sits at $5.39.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACRE is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $4.91, while resistance sits at $5.39.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$4.95 -
$5.33
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
49th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 49th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($5.38)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.95 -
$5.33
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.36
(7.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.91
Resistance Level
$5.39
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.71
Wall Street Target
$5.38
(+4.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-81.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1598.1%
Profit Margin
-1.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-30.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 25.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-30.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.63
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$4.16
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$3.75
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→26)
$11.01
(+114%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 23.6%)
$24.42
(+375%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 23.6%)
$9.70
(+89%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 23.6%)
$8.24
(+60%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 25.6
Stabilization Target:
$15.10
(+193.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+193.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 10, 2026 1:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Anton Feingold
SELL
7606 shares
2026-01-14
Bryan Patrick Donohoe
SELL
21761 shares
2026-01-14
Jeffrey Michael Gonzales
SELL
6218 shares
2026-01-14
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