ADP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADP - Automatic Data Processing
$208.37
-0.26 (-0.12%)
▼
5d:
-2.67%
30d:
+5.81%
90d:
-0.76%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
ADP is up 7.1% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $200 2026-06-18 with 961 OI. Put ratio: 60% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
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1 traders called ADP this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$330.52
Based on 6.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$205.23
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADP is currently trading at $208.37, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $197.00 to $211.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.2) compared to its historical average (19.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $204.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ADP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $244.47 (+17.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $204.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ADP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $244.47 (+17.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$197.00 -
$211.24
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($244.47)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$197.00 -
$211.24
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$204.56
Resistance Level
$216.55
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.17
Wall Street Target
$244.47
(+17.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.5%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.2 vs 19.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$199.87
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$191.47
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$183.43
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→20)
$208.35
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 9.8%)
$354.61
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.2, Growth: 9.8%)
$276.21
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.6, Growth: 9.8%)
$234.78
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.71
Bull Case
$266.87
(+28%)
Analyst growth 13.5%, PE expands to 22.0
Base Case
$242.61
(+16%)
Market implied 13.5%, PE stable at 20.0
Bear Case
$145.39
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.2 to 19.5
Stabilization Target:
$236.98
(+13.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 4:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Richard McCormick
BUY
2026-03-19
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Advanced ADP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADP price and gamma walls.
