ADP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADP - Automatic Data Processing
$242.27
6.54 (2.77%)
▲
5d:
+12.0%
30d:
+4.8%
90d:
+20.36%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
25d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ADP is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: ADP is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$328.79
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$204.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADP is currently trading at $242.27, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $218.62 to $231.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.9) is in line with its historical norms (19.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $243.03. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ADP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $243.03. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ADP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$218.62 -
$231.83
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ADP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($246.80)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$218.62 -
$231.83
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$213.80
Resistance Level
$243.03
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.87
Wall Street Target
$246.80
(+1.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.5%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
19.9 vs 19.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$244.93
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$247.63
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$250.35
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$241.92
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.1%)
$354.56
(+46%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.1%)
$323.45
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 10.1%)
$274.93
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.73
Bull Case
$294.67
(+22%)
Analyst growth 13.6%, PE expands to 24.2
Base Case
$267.88
(+11%)
Market implied 13.6%, PE stable at 22.0
Bear Case
$160.30
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 5:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Richard McCormick
BUY
2026-03-19
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADP price and gamma walls.
