ADTN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADTN - ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$15.67
0.84 (5.66%)
▲
5d:
+5.1%
30d:
-6.39%
90d:
+53.33%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
0d
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1 traders called ADTN this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ADTN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ADTN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.18
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.50
10.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADTN is currently trading at $15.67, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.90 to $17.18. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.5) is in line with its historical norms (18.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.10, while resistance sits at $16.28. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.50 (+24.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.10, while resistance sits at $16.28. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.50 (+24.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$14.90 -
$17.18
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 24.4% below Wall St target ($19.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.8% growth with 15.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.90 -
$17.18
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.10
Resistance Level
$16.28
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.46
Wall Street Target
$19.50
(+24.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.0%
Profit Margin
-3.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.8% premium
PE vs Historical
20.5 vs 18.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.11
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$16.56
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$17.02
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.72
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 33.6%)
$40.12
(+156%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.5, Growth: 33.6%)
$37.33
(+138%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.4, Growth: 33.6%)
$31.73
(+103%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 25, 2026 9:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Timothy P Santo
BUY
6150 shares
2025-11-28
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