AGO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGO - Assured Guaranty, LTD
$74.88
-1.25 (-1.64%)
▼
5d:
-0.23%
30d:
-9.78%
90d:
-13.27%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AGO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AGO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$98.27
Based on 2.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$61.02
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGO is currently trading at $74.88, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $78.58 to $84.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.8) compared to its historical average (11.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGO is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $74.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AGO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.33 (+23.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGO is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $74.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AGO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.33 (+23.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$78.58 -
$84.12
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.3% below Wall St target ($92.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$78.58 -
$84.12
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$74.18
Resistance Level
$83.16
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.77
Wall Street Target
$92.33
(+23.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-44.5%
Profit Margin
51.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 11.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$71.44
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$68.15
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$65.01
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$74.51
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 1.5%)
$176.79
(+136%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 1.5%)
$78.28
(+5%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: 1.5%)
$66.54
(-11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.85
Bull Case
$72.51
(-3%)
Analyst growth -13.4%, PE expands to 9.5
Base Case
$65.92
(-12%)
Market implied -13.4%, PE stable at 8.6
Bear Case
$51.77
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.8 to 11.2
Stabilization Target:
$85.82
(+14.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 8:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Francisco L Borges
SELL
123750 shares
2026-03-30
Dominic Frederico
SELL
29998 shares
2026-03-23
Dominic Frederico
SELL
20002 shares
2026-03-20
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