AGO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGO - Assured Guaranty, LTD
$83.67
2.28 (2.80%)
▲
5d:
+8.39%
30d:
+13.25%
90d:
+3.76%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AGO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AGO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2.75
Based on -39.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1.71
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGO is currently trading at $83.67, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $74.19 to $79.21. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.6) is in line with its historical norms (11.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGO is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $83.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AGO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.33 (+10.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGO is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $83.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AGO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.33 (+10.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$74.19 -
$79.21
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.6% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($92.33)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.9% growth with -6.2% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$74.19 -
$79.21
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$76.13
Resistance Level
$83.75
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.62
Wall Street Target
$92.33
(+10.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-44.5%
Profit Margin
51.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.9% premium
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 11.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$85.26
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$86.88
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$88.53
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$83.83
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -82.8%)
$153.00
(+83%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: -82.8%)
$81.61
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: -82.8%)
$69.37
(-17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.73
Bull Case
$73.86
(-12%)
Analyst growth -17.5%, PE expands to 10.3
Base Case
$67.15
(-20%)
Market implied -17.5%, PE stable at 9.3
Bear Case
$55.35
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 7:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Francisco L Borges
SELL
123750 shares
2026-03-30
Dominic Frederico
SELL
29998 shares
2026-03-23
Dominic Frederico
SELL
20002 shares
2026-03-20
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