AMBA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AMBA - Ambarella, Inc. Ordinary Shares

SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
$81.16
0.12 (0.15%) ▲
5d: +6.37%
30d: +41.59%
90d: +22.58%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Protect Your AMBA Gains
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026 12d
Smart Money Distribution

AMBA is up 4.7% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $42.5 2026-06-18 with 197 OI. Put ratio: 61% View Scanner →

Strength: 3.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AMBA is 10.2% above its trading range ($73.63). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.87
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.44
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AMBA is currently trading at $81.16, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $54.92 to $73.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 121.0) compared to its historical average (97.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBA is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $83.37. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: AMBA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range $54.92 - $73.63
Company Quality Score 57/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 46.7%

Protect Your Profits

AMBA is technically overbought (RSI 76). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.

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All Signals

  • BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+10.2% above its trading range)
  • BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($87.92)
  • NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.5% growth which is achievable

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $54.92 - $73.63
Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $69.43
Resistance Level $83.37
Current Trend Uptrend
Technical data as of May 15, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 121.03
Wall Street Target $87.92 (+8.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 20.1%
Profit Margin -19.4%
Valuation Premium vs History +7.5% premium
PE vs Historical 121.0 vs 97.5 STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +7.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $87.25 (+8%)
2-Year Target $93.79 (+16%)
3-Year Target $100.82 (+24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 121→98) PE COMPRESSION $81.23 (+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 121.0, Growth: 12.5%) $115.67 (+43%)
Base: (SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 12.5%) $21.09 (-74%)
Bear: (PE: 18.8, Growth: 12.5%) $17.93 (-78%)
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Last updated: May 15, 2026 6:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:54 PM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
19
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Alexander Young SELL 1971 shares 2026-04-21
Chan W Lee SELL 3641 shares 2026-03-19
Chi-Hong Ju SELL 2155 shares 2026-03-19

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Advanced AMBA Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMBA price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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