AMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMG - Affiliated Managers Group
$302.10
-1.38 (-0.45%)
▼
5d:
+1.46%
30d:
+0.32%
90d:
-8.16%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AMG appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.5% annual earnings decline despite 74% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AMG appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.5% annual earnings decline despite 74% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$496.37
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$308.21
2.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMG is currently trading at $302.10, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $284.92 to $303.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.7) compared to its historical average (8.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 73.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $285.96, while resistance sits at $317.81.
Market Sentiment: AMG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $385.71 (+27.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $285.96, while resistance sits at $317.81.
Market Sentiment: AMG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $385.71 (+27.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$284.92 -
$303.74
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.7% below Wall St target ($385.71)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$284.92 -
$303.74
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$285.96
Resistance Level
$317.81
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.73
Wall Street Target
$385.71
(+27.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
73.6%
Profit Margin
35.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.7 vs 8.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$291.53
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$281.32
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$271.48
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$302.03
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 12.3%)
$1220.86
(+304%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.7, Growth: 12.3%)
$428.19
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 12.3%)
$363.96
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $24.37
Bull Case
$535.35
(+77%)
Analyst growth 60.4%, PE expands to 13.7
Base Case
$486.68
(+61%)
Market implied 60.4%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$206.37
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.7 to 8.6
Stabilization Target:
$336.10
(+11.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 11:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:17 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kavita Padiyar
SELL
2200 shares
2026-03-09
Thomas M Wojcik
SELL
8000 shares
2026-03-06
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