AMSF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMSF - AMERISAFE, Inc.
$34.99
0.63 (1.83%)
▲
5d:
+9.93%
30d:
+13.57%
90d:
+7.43%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMSF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AMSF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$46.71
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMSF is currently trading at $34.99, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.53 to $33.05. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.8) is in line with its historical norms (16.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMSF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AMSF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMSF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AMSF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$30.53 -
$33.05
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
31th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.5%
Protect Your Profits
AMSF is technically overbought (RSI 74). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.9% above its trading range)
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 31th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($36.67)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.7% growth with 10.3% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.53 -
$33.05
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.48
(7.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.10
Resistance Level
$35.12
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.80
Wall Street Target
$36.67
(+4.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.5%
Profit Margin
14.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
16.8 vs 16.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.58
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$36.19
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$36.80
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$35.06
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 0.0%)
$45.37
(+30%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.8, Growth: 0.0%)
$34.99
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.3, Growth: 0.0%)
$29.74
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.43
Bull Case
$32.40
(-7%)
Analyst growth -14.3%, PE expands to 15.6
Base Case
$29.46
(-16%)
Market implied -14.3%, PE stable at 14.1
Bear Case
$23.36
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 10:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMSF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AMSF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMSF price and gamma walls.
