ARR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARR - ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
$17.63
0.08 (0.46%)
▲
5d:
-0.56%
30d:
+0.4%
90d:
-0.34%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.98
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.03
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARR is currently trading at $17.63, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.04 to $17.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.8) is in line with its historical norms (5.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$17.04 -
$17.72
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($18.38)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.04 -
$17.72
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.14
Resistance Level
$17.81
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.77
Wall Street Target
$18.38
(+4.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
126.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.1%
Profit Margin
80.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
5.8 vs 5.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.82
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$18.02
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$18.22
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$17.69
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 4.3%)
$76.20
(+332%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.8, Growth: 4.3%)
$20.03
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.9, Growth: 4.3%)
$17.02
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.49
Bull Case
$23.70
(+35%)
Analyst growth 22.8%, PE expands to 7.8
Base Case
$21.55
(+22%)
Market implied 22.8%, PE stable at 7.1
Bear Case
$11.93
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 09, 2026 8:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:45 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:45 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Robert C Hain
SELL
6833 shares
2026-01-06
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