ARR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARR - ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
$17.69
0.03 (0.17%)
▲
5d:
+1.67%
30d:
-2.43%
90d:
+6.12%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Feb 6, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.96
Based on -11.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.56
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARR is currently trading at $17.69, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.63 to $18.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.7) is in line with its historical norms (5.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $17.02, while resistance sits at $18.66.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $17.02, while resistance sits at $18.66.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$17.63 -
$18.65
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($18.62)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$17.63 -
$18.65
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.03
Resistance Level
$18.66
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Feb 6, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.65
Wall Street Target
$18.63
(+5.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
126.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.1%
Profit Margin
55.3%
PE vs Historical
5.7 vs 5.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.69
(0%)
2-Year Target
$17.69
(0%)
3-Year Target
$17.69
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$17.53
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -27.7%)
$69.24
(+291%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.6, Growth: -27.7%)
$17.54
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.8, Growth: -27.7%)
$14.91
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 5.74 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.08
Bull Case
$21.36
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 6.0
Base Case
$17.69
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 5.7
Bear Case
$13.53
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 5.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: February 08, 2026 10:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Robert C Hain
SELL
6833 shares
2026-01-06
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