ASLE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASLE - AerSale Corporation Common Stock
$6.24
0.09 (1.46%)
▲
5d:
-2.5%
30d:
-8.37%
90d:
-18.11%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASLE appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -10.0% annual earnings decline despite 129% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASLE appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -10.0% annual earnings decline despite 129% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.74
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.40
40.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASLE is currently trading at $6.24, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.32 to $7.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.9) compared to its historical average (9.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 128.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASLE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $5.96, while resistance sits at $6.68.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.00 (+28.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASLE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $5.96, while resistance sits at $6.68.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.00 (+28.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$6.32 -
$7.01
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.2% below Wall St target ($8.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.32 -
$7.01
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.45
(7.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.96
Resistance Level
$6.68
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.90
Wall Street Target
$8.00
(+28.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
128.9%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.9 vs 9.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.62
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$5.05
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$4.55
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→10)
$6.27
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 36.1%)
$50.16
(+704%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.9, Growth: 36.1%)
$15.73
(+152%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 36.1%)
$13.37
(+114%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.21
Bull Case
$13.24
(+112%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 31.5
Base Case
$12.04
(+93%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 28.7
Bear Case
$4.09
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.9 to 9.5
Stabilization Target:
$8.60
(+37.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+37.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 26, 2026 3:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASLE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Judith Ann Fedder
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-11
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Advanced ASLE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ASLE price and gamma walls.
