ASO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASO - Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
$50.55
-0.52 (-1.02%)
▼
5d:
-6.58%
30d:
-12.83%
90d:
-13.68%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 09, 2026
21d
Smart Money Accumulation
ASO is down 6.6% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $60 2026-07-17 with 367 OI. Call ratio: 73% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ASO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ASO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$79.27
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.22
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASO is currently trading at $50.55, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $52.46 to $58.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.8) is in line with its historical norms (8.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASO is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $48.75, while resistance sits at $55.06.
Market Sentiment: ASO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.42 (+21.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASO is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $48.75, while resistance sits at $55.06.
Market Sentiment: ASO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.42 (+21.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$52.46 -
$58.03
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ASO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.5% below Wall St target ($61.42)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.6%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$52.46 -
$58.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.75
Resistance Level
$55.06
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.75
Wall Street Target
$61.42
(+21.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 8.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$49.03
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$47.56
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$46.14
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$50.58
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 10.9%)
$196.09
(+288%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 10.9%)
$68.89
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 10.9%)
$58.55
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.54
Bull Case
$66.11
(+31%)
Analyst growth 17.7%, PE expands to 10.1
Base Case
$60.10
(+19%)
Market implied 17.7%, PE stable at 9.2
Bear Case
$34.73
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.8 to 8.5
Stabilization Target:
$55.42
(+9.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 5:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jeffrey C Tweedy
SELL
4000 shares
2026-04-16
Brian T Marley
SELL
3500 shares
2025-12-15
Brian T Marley
SELL
17071 shares
2025-12-12
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Advanced ASO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ASO price and gamma walls.
