BJRI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BJRI - BJ's Restaurants, Inc.
$41.72
0.38 (0.92%)
▲
5d:
+2.05%
30d:
+9.59%
90d:
+3.47%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BJRI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BJRI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$68.66
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$42.63
2.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BJRI is currently trading at $41.72, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.06 to $40.44. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.0) is in line with its historical norms (15.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BJRI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $36.29, while resistance sits at $43.81.
Market Sentiment: BJRI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BJRI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $36.29, while resistance sits at $43.81.
Market Sentiment: BJRI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$37.06 -
$40.44
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($44.44)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.3% growth with 2.9% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.06 -
$40.44
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.29
Resistance Level
$43.81
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.99
Wall Street Target
$44.44
(+6.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-29.3%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
16.0 vs 15.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.85
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$41.97
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$42.10
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$41.59
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 17.7%)
$93.87
(+125%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.0, Growth: 17.7%)
$68.11
(+63%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.6, Growth: 17.7%)
$57.89
(+39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.99
Bull Case
$59.62
(+43%)
Analyst growth 31.1%, PE expands to 22.9
Base Case
$54.20
(+30%)
Market implied 31.1%, PE stable at 20.8
Bear Case
$28.11
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 11:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BJRI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brian S Krakower
SELL
2600 shares
2026-03-17
C Bradford Richmond
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-12
C Bradford Richmond
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-06
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