BLD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BLD - TopBuild Corp. Common Stock
$413.16
4.32 (1.06%)
▲
5d:
-3.47%
30d:
+6.51%
90d:
-23.11%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BLD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BLD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$686.07
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$425.99
3.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BLD is currently trading at $413.16, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $389.06 to $452.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.7) is in line with its historical norms (20.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLD is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $407.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $475.30 (+15.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLD is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $407.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $475.30 (+15.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$389.06 -
$452.67
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($475.30)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$389.06 -
$452.67
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$407.81
Resistance Level
$445.56
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.69
Wall Street Target
$475.30
(+15.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.8%
Profit Margin
8.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.7 vs 20.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$406.55
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$400.04
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$393.64
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→21)
$413.76
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 15.3%)
$708.42
(+72%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.7, Growth: 15.3%)
$633.00
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.7, Growth: 15.3%)
$538.05
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.78
Bull Case
$542.50
(+31%)
Analyst growth 18.0%, PE expands to 25.9
Base Case
$493.18
(+19%)
Market implied 18.0%, PE stable at 23.5
Bear Case
$284.22
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.7 to 20.7
Stabilization Target:
$434.28
(+5.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 7:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:27 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BLD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Luis Francisco Machado
SELL
1000 shares
2025-11-26
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