BLKB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BLKB - Blackbaud, Inc.
$37.51
0.32 (0.86%)
▲
5d:
-2.87%
30d:
-0.5%
90d:
-31.46%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BLKB appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -12.2% annual earnings decline despite 180% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BLKB appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -12.2% annual earnings decline despite 180% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$83.12
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.61
27.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BLKB is currently trading at $37.51, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.37 to $39.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.4) compared to its historical average (9.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 180.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLKB is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $35.35, while resistance sits at $40.04.
Market Sentiment: BLKB has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $59.80 (+59.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLKB is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $35.35, while resistance sits at $40.04.
Market Sentiment: BLKB has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $59.80 (+59.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$36.37 -
$39.84
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 59.4% below Wall St target ($59.80)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.37 -
$39.84
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.35
Resistance Level
$40.04
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.40
Wall Street Target
$59.80
(+59.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
180.0%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.4 vs 9.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.76
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$30.38
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$27.34
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→10)
$40.57
(+8%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 12.8%)
$173.21
(+362%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.4, Growth: 12.8%)
$53.81
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: 12.8%)
$45.74
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.37
Bull Case
$81.82
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 17.3
Base Case
$74.38
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 15.7
Bear Case
$25.29
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.4 to 9.5
Stabilization Target:
$55.65
(+48.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+48.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 29, 2026 6:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BLKB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin P Gregoire
SELL
2000 shares
2026-03-04
David J Benjamin
SELL
14349 shares
2026-02-24
Kevin Mcdearis
SELL
15462 shares
2026-02-23
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