BXMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BXMT - Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NEW)
$18.19
-0.23 (-1.25%)
▼
5d:
-4.91%
30d:
-8.04%
90d:
-6.91%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BXMT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BXMT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.07
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.74
32.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BXMT is currently trading at $18.19, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.85 to $20.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.6) compared to its historical average (11.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BXMT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.00 (+14.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BXMT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.00 (+14.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$18.85 -
$20.03
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($21.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.85 -
$20.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.07
Resistance Level
$19.50
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.58
Wall Street Target
$21.00
(+14.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Profit Margin
22.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 11.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.35
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$16.35
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$15.40
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→12)
$18.49
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 37.0%)
$108.92
(+491%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 37.0%)
$47.34
(+157%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 37.0%)
$40.24
(+118%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.60
Bull Case
$40.92
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 34.1
Base Case
$37.20
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 31.0
Bear Case
$12.65
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.6 to 11.5
Stabilization Target:
$22.12
(+20.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 1:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BXMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Fernando Austin Pena
SELL
1666 shares
2026-03-31
Marcin Urbaszek
SELL
452 shares
2026-03-17
Fernando Austin Pena
SELL
3131 shares
2025-12-31
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