CHA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHA - Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares
$9.54
-0.43 (-4.31%)
▼
5d:
-3.05%
30d:
-12.64%
90d:
-6.84%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 29, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CHA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CHA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.36
Based on 13.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.40
16.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHA is currently trading at $9.54, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.10 to $10.91. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 0.8) is in line with its historical norms (0.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.81 (+76.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.81 (+76.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.10 -
$10.91
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 76.2% below Wall St target ($16.81)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.10 -
$10.91
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.41
Resistance Level
$10.72
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.78
Wall Street Target
$16.81
(+76.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-95.9%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.8 vs 0.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.45
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$9.37
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$9.28
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$9.53
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 23.2%)
$503.00
(+5173%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.8, Growth: 23.2%)
$17.83
(+87%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.7, Growth: 23.2%)
$15.15
(+59%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.91
Bull Case
$21.93
(+130%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 12.1
Base Case
$19.94
(+109%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 11.0
Bear Case
$6.78
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.8 to 0.8
Stabilization Target:
$9.79
(+2.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 22, 2026 8:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHA showing a specific setup today?
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