CHMI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHMI - CHERRY HILL MORTGAGE INVESTMENT CORPORATION
$2.33
0.02 (0.87%)
▲
5d:
-4.12%
30d:
-3.32%
90d:
-3.72%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Get Alerted When CHMI Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHMI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHMI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.31
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.06
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHMI is currently trading at $2.33, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.33 to $2.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.9) compared to its historical average (4.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.00 (+28.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.00 (+28.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$2.33 -
$2.42
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.8% below Wall St target ($3.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$2.33 -
$2.42
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.28
Resistance Level
$2.50
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.88
Wall Street Target
$3.00
(+28.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-34.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-49.5%
Profit Margin
35.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.9 vs 4.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.23
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$2.13
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$2.04
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→4)
$2.31
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 5.3%)
$15.24
(+554%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.9, Growth: 5.3%)
$2.72
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.3, Growth: 5.3%)
$2.31
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.15
Bull Case
$5.08
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 16.9
Base Case
$4.62
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 15.4
Bear Case
$1.57
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.9 to 4.4
Stabilization Target:
$2.64
(+13.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 05, 2026 6:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:36 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is CHMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated REIT - Mortgage Stocks
Top-rated stocks in REIT - Mortgage by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
RITM
Rithm Capital Corp. |
STRONG BUY
11 analysts |
$13 | 62 BUY |
|
NLY
Annaly Capital Managemen… |
BUY
14 analysts |
$24 | 62 BUY |
|
FBRT
Franklin BSP Realty Trus… |
STRONG BUY
5 analysts |
$13 | 54 HOLD |
|
LADR
Ladder Capital Corp Clas… |
STRONG BUY
6 analysts |
$12 | 59 HOLD |
|
AGNC
AGNC Investment Corp. |
HOLD
14 analysts |
$11 | 64 BUY |
