CHMI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHMI - CHERRY HILL MORTGAGE INVESTMENT CORPORATION
$2.40
-0.10 (-4.00%)
▼
5d:
-7.34%
30d:
-9.09%
90d:
-7.34%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CHMI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CHMI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.46
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHMI is currently trading at $2.40, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.54 to $2.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.0) compared to its historical average (4.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.00 (+25.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.00 (+25.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$2.54 -
$2.67
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 25.0% below Wall St target ($3.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.3% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$2.54 -
$2.67
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.40
Resistance Level
$2.71
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.00
Wall Street Target
$3.00
(+25.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-34.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-49.5%
Profit Margin
35.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.0 vs 4.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.30
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$2.20
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$2.10
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$2.42
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 5.3%)
$15.44
(+544%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.0, Growth: 5.3%)
$2.80
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.4, Growth: 5.3%)
$2.38
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.15
Bull Case
$5.41
(+126%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.0
Base Case
$4.92
(+105%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 16.4
Bear Case
$1.67
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.0 to 4.6
Stabilization Target:
$2.76
(+15.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 7:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Sharon L Cook
SELL
7427 shares
2025-12-10
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