CVCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVCO - Cavco Industries Inc.
$455.76
-20.83 (-4.37%)
▼
5d:
-5.94%
30d:
-9.4%
90d:
-22.8%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026
11d
Smart Money Accumulation
CVCO is down 7.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $500 2026-06-18 with 2 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CVCO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CVCO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$666.61
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$413.91
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVCO is currently trading at $455.76, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $479.86 to $530.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.2) compared to its historical average (21.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVCO is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $453.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $587.50 (+28.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVCO is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $453.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $587.50 (+28.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$479.86 -
$530.85
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CVCO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 28.9% below Wall St target ($587.50)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.9% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$479.86 -
$530.85
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$29.93
(6.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$453.18
Resistance Level
$515.83
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.23
Wall Street Target
$587.50
(+28.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.1%
Profit Margin
8.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.2 vs 21.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$431.15
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$407.87
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$385.84
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→22)
$455.04
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 4.8%)
$634.67
(+39%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.2, Growth: 4.8%)
$524.26
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.5, Growth: 4.8%)
$445.62
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $23.01
Bull Case
$569.59
(+25%)
Analyst growth 8.6%, PE expands to 22.8
Base Case
$517.81
(+14%)
Market implied 8.6%, PE stable at 20.7
Bear Case
$324.08
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.2 to 21.5
Stabilization Target:
$537.50
(+17.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 2:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
David A Greenblatt
BUY
87 shares
2026-02-04
William C Boor
BUY
1000 shares
2026-02-04
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-04
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Advanced CVCO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CVCO price and gamma walls.