CXW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CXW - CoreCivic, Inc.
$31.03
0.02 (0.06%)
▲
5d:
+5.62%
30d:
+45.34%
90d:
+62.21%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: CXW is 9.8% above its trading range ($28.26). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: CXW is 9.8% above its trading range ($28.26). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$41.92
Based on 14.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.03
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CXW is currently trading at $31.03, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.30 to $28.26. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 15.6) compared to its historical average (11.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 12.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CXW is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $25.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CXW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CXW is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $25.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CXW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$21.30 -
$28.26
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+9.8% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($33.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 12.4% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.30 -
$28.26
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.77
Resistance Level
$25.40
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.59
Wall Street Target
$33.00
(+6.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
65.7%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+12.4% premium
PE vs Historical
15.6 vs 11.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+12.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.88
(+12%)
2-Year Target
$39.20
(+26%)
3-Year Target
$44.06
(+42%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$31.08
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 24.2%)
$83.00
(+168%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.6, Growth: 24.2%)
$59.42
(+92%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: 24.2%)
$41.92
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.23
Bull Case
$55.19
(+78%)
Analyst growth 61.8%, PE expands to 27.7
Base Case
$50.17
(+62%)
Market implied 61.8%, PE stable at 25.2
Bear Case
$21.09
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CXW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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