CXW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CXW - CoreCivic, Inc.
$20.63
-0.62 (-2.92%)
▼
5d:
+1.48%
30d:
+2.03%
90d:
+9.04%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CXW shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CXW shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$40.01
Based on 14.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.85
17.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CXW is currently trading at $20.63, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.89 to $20.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CXW is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $19.31, while resistance sits at $22.20.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.80 (+40.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CXW is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $19.31, while resistance sits at $22.20.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.80 (+40.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$19.89 -
$20.77
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.2% below Wall St target ($29.80)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.89 -
$20.77
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.31
Resistance Level
$22.20
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.68
Wall Street Target
$29.80
(+40.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
65.7%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 10.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.38
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$21.51
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$21.63
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$21.27
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 24.2%)
$83.99
(+295%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 24.2%)
$40.69
(+92%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 24.2%)
$34.59
(+63%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.23
Bull Case
$36.66
(+73%)
Analyst growth 61.8%, PE expands to 18.4
Base Case
$33.33
(+57%)
Market implied 61.8%, PE stable at 16.8
Bear Case
$14.01
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 11:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:23 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CXW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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