EXPD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXPD - Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
$167.57
0.76 (0.46%)
▲
5d:
+3.65%
30d:
+6.14%
90d:
+16.12%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EXPD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EXPD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$190.24
Based on 2.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$118.13
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXPD is currently trading at $167.57, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $159.41 to $164.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.2) is in line with its historical norms (23.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPD is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $167.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $147.54. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPD is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $167.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $147.54. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$159.41 -
$164.58
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
42.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 12.0% above Wall St target ($147.54)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$159.41 -
$164.58
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$156.29
Resistance Level
$167.00
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.18
Wall Street Target
$147.54
(-12.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.3%
Profit Margin
7.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
24.2 vs 23.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$168.41
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$169.25
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$170.10
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→24)
PE COMPRESSION
$167.41
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.2, Growth: 1.8%)
$176.74
(+6%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 1.8%)
$159.19
(-5%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 1.8%)
$135.31
(-19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.19
Bull Case
$205.42
(+23%)
Analyst growth 11.9%, PE expands to 29.6
Base Case
$186.74
(+11%)
Market implied 11.9%, PE stable at 27.0
Bear Case
$113.43
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 7:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXPD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
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