FAST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FAST - Fastenal Co
$43.98
0.21 (0.48%)
▲
5d:
-0.86%
30d:
-0.95%
90d:
-3.43%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 13, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
FAST is up 3.3% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $40 2026-06-18 with 5,780 OI. Put ratio: 61% View Scanner →
Strength: 2.7/10
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1 traders called FAST this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FAST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FAST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.36
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.03
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FAST is currently trading at $43.98, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.73 to $46.60. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 32.2) is in line with its historical norms (33.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAST is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.97. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FAST has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAST is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.97. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FAST has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$43.73 -
$46.60
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FAST? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($46.58)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$43.73 -
$46.60
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.97
Resistance Level
$45.64
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.22
Wall Street Target
$46.58
(+5.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.8%
Profit Margin
15.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
32.2 vs 33.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.32
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$42.67
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$42.03
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32→34)
$43.95
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.2, Growth: 10.5%)
$59.37
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 10.5%)
$40.61
(-8%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 10.5%)
$34.52
(-22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (32x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.13
Bull Case
$58.15
(+32%)
Analyst growth 20.8%, PE expands to 42.6
Base Case
$52.86
(+20%)
Market implied 20.8%, PE stable at 38.7
Bear Case
$29.76
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 32.2 to 33.7
Stabilization Target:
$45.99
(+4.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 7:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FAST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Reyne K Wisecup
SELL
36920 shares
2026-03-05
Scott Satterlee
SELL
15964 shares
2026-01-23
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-01-23
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FAST price and gamma walls.
