FCPT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FCPT - Four Corners Property Trust, Inc.
$24.47
-0.06 (-0.24%)
▼
5d:
-2.78%
30d:
-2.59%
90d:
+0.41%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FCPT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FCPT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.63
Based on 3.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FCPT is currently trading at $24.47, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.56 to $25.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.3) is in line with its historical norms (20.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 0.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FCPT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.23. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.00 (+18.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FCPT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.23. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.00 (+18.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$24.56 -
$25.54
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($29.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.56 -
$25.54
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.23
Resistance Level
$25.69
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.30
Wall Street Target
$29.00
(+18.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.6%
Profit Margin
38.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.3 vs 20.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.25
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$24.03
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$23.82
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→21)
$24.52
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 2.6%)
$28.77
(+18%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.3, Growth: 2.6%)
$26.46
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 2.6%)
$22.49
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.11
Bull Case
$29.14
(+19%)
Analyst growth 8.6%, PE expands to 24.2
Base Case
$26.49
(+8%)
Market implied 8.6%, PE stable at 22.0
Bear Case
$16.59
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.3 to 20.9
Stabilization Target:
$25.19
(+3.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 9:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FCPT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
William H Lenehan
BUY
7865 shares
2026-03-06
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