FCPT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FCPT - Four Corners Property Trust, Inc.
$25.11
0.58 (2.36%)
▲
5d:
+0.36%
30d:
+2.78%
90d:
+6.76%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FCPT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FCPT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.05
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.14
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FCPT is currently trading at $25.11, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.45 to $25.19. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.3) is in line with its historical norms (20.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 0.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FCPT is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $25.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.22 (+12.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FCPT is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $25.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.22 (+12.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$24.45 -
$25.19
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($28.22)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.45 -
$25.19
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.87
Resistance Level
$25.48
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.32
Wall Street Target
$28.22
(+12.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.6%
Profit Margin
38.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.3 vs 20.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.96
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$24.81
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$24.66
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→21)
$25.12
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.8%)
$33.75
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.3, Growth: 7.8%)
$31.49
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 7.8%)
$26.77
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.11
Bull Case
$30.03
(+20%)
Analyst growth 11.3%, PE expands to 24.3
Base Case
$27.30
(+9%)
Market implied 11.3%, PE stable at 22.1
Bear Case
$16.68
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.3 to 20.7
Stabilization Target:
$25.57
(+1.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 8:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FCPT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
William H Lenehan
BUY
7865 shares
2026-03-06
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