FER Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FER - Ferrovial SE Ordinary Shares
$68.06
0.16 (0.24%)
▲
5d:
-2.81%
30d:
-4.53%
90d:
-6.73%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 27, 2026
11d
Smart Money Accumulation
FER is down 3.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $70 2026-06-18 with 142 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FER shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FER shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.47
Based on 3.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.89
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FER is currently trading at $68.06, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $68.02 to $71.34. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 52.8) is in line with its historical norms (55.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FER is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $67.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FER is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $67.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$68.02 -
$71.34
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($73.42)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$68.02 -
$71.34
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$67.29
Resistance Level
$71.97
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
52.78
Wall Street Target
$73.42
(+7.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-87.6%
Profit Margin
9.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
52.8 vs 55.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$66.97
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$65.90
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$64.85
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 53→56)
$68.19
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 52.8, Growth: 3.2%)
$74.72
(+10%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 3.2%)
$31.20
(-54%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 3.2%)
$26.52
(-61%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 49.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.37
Bull Case
$70.30
(+3%)
Analyst growth -5.9%, PE expands to 54.5
Base Case
$63.91
(-6%)
Market implied -5.9%, PE stable at 49.6
Bear Case
$46.17
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 42.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 52.8 to 55.5
Stabilization Target:
$71.57
(+5.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 8:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:49 PM
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Advanced FER Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FER price and gamma walls.
