FICO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FICO - Fair Isaac Corporation
$1098.59
21.66 (2.01%)
▲
5d:
-2.43%
30d:
+2.68%
90d:
-18.3%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
FICO is up 3.5% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $1020 2026-06-18 with 62 OI. Put ratio: 72% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.9/10
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2 traders called FICO this week
50% bullish • 1 bearish
50% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FICO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FICO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2644.97
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1642.32
33.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FICO is currently trading at $1098.59, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $999.00 to $1091.83. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.2) compared to its historical average (27.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 69.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FICO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $1037.30, while resistance sits at $1133.64.
Market Sentiment: FICO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1562.02 (+42.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FICO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $1037.30, while resistance sits at $1133.64.
Market Sentiment: FICO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1562.02 (+42.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$999.00 -
$1091.83
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
69.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 42.2% below Wall St target ($1562.02)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$999.00 -
$1091.83
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$86.84
(7.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1037.30
Resistance Level
$1133.65
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.22
Wall Street Target
$1562.02
(+42.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
38.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
69.0%
Profit Margin
33.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.2 vs 27.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$988.73
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$889.86
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$800.87
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→28)
$1105.01
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 25.8%)
$2389.52
(+118%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 25.8%)
$2189.32
(+99%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 25.8%)
$1860.92
(+69%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $31.55
Bull Case
$2039.93
(+86%)
Analyst growth 72.2%, PE expands to 37.6
Base Case
$1854.49
(+69%)
Market implied 72.2%, PE stable at 34.1
Bear Case
$732.31
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.2 to 27.9
Stabilization Target:
$1515.79
(+38.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+38.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 9:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FICO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-13
Eva Manolis
SELL
520 shares
2026-02-25
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Advanced FICO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FICO price and gamma walls.
